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In August the seasonally adjusted annual rate of home sales jumped to the highest pace since February 2007, as many buyers made the effort to lock in rates before they rise any further. While rates have ticked down due to the Federal Reserve’s announcement that it would not taper its unconventional asset purchases in September, rates are still likely to slowly rise through the end of the year. Prospective buyers should take advantage of what is still a historically high level of affordability in the housing market before it diminishes. With inventory remaining tight in markets across the country, potential home sellers are still well- positioned to take advantage of the many buyers looking for opportunities and 18 months of year-over-year price increases.
Interest rates have moderated thanks to the Federal Reserve’s decision to continue its quantitative easing policies. 30-year fixed-rate mortgages are currently 4.32% with 15-year rates at 3.37% and 5-year adjustable rates at 2.63%. While the Fed’s policy announcement has helped rates in the near term, we should expect them to continue to increase as the overall economy improves.
Existing home sales were up 1.7% from July , hitting the highest mark since February 2007. The current annual pace of 5.48 million home sales represents a 13.2% increase over the same month last year and represents the twenty-sixth consecutive month of year-over-year increases. The recent spike in the rate of home sales is likely tied to the rise in interest rates in previous months, which caused buyers concerned about rising rates to get off the sidelines and lock in.
In August the median existing home price dipped slightly from the previous month to $212,100. Median price was down only 0.7% from July but was up 14.7% from last August. Home prices typically dip later in the year, so the current month- to- month trend is not concerning. However, the year-over-year rises in home prices bode well and will continue to help boost more homeowners out of negative equity positions.
The number of homes available for sale in August increased slightly but was not enough to keep up with the jump in buyer activity. This brought months’ supply of inventory, which takes into account inventory levels and sales rates, down 3.9% from last month to a current supply of 4.9 months of inventory.
Printable Version:
September Newsletter 2013
The annual rate of home sales rose to the highest level since 2009 in July, the jump likely boosted by formerly reluctant buyers being pushed off the sidelines by the anticipation of rising mortgage rates. As speculation continues on the date and extent of the Federal Reserve’s reduction in its purchases of unconventional assets, mortgage rates have already begun to rise and are unlikely to return to the historic lows witnessed early in the year. With rates on the move, prospective buyers would do well to take advantage of low rates while home affordability remains at historically high levels. Prices moderated slightly in July from their peak in June, likely due to seasonal variation, but maintained high year-over-year growth rates. Sellers are still well-positioned in the national market with inventory still relatively tight in many areas.
Interest rates have moved up this month: 30-year fixed-rate mortgages are currently 4.58% with 15-year rates at 3.60% and 5-year adjustable rates at 3.21%. These are the highest rates we have seen in the last two years.
Total existing home sales in July were up 6.5% from June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.39 million homes. Year-over-year home sales were up 17.2% from the July 2012 rate of 4.6 million homes. The housing market recovery is still well under way with 25 consecutive months of year-over-year growth in home sales heading into this fall.
The median existing home price in the United States in July was $213,500, down slightly from the previous month but up 13.7% from the same month last year. The median price level released by the National Association of Realtors is not seasonally adjusted and the small dip we experienced from June to July is consistent with those we have seen in the past. This is the seventeenth consecutive month of year-over-year price increases, which last occurred from January 2005 to May 2006.
A slight rise in inventory levels was evenly offset by the increase in the pace of home sales, causing the months of supply for existing homes to hold steady at 5.1 months. Total housing inventory rose by 5.6% in July to a level of 2.28 million homes. Inventory is 5% below levels reported for July of last year, which represented 6.3 months of supply at the time.
April Real Estate Newsletter
March Newsletter 2013 Real Estate Market Updates
The inventory dropped an additional 150 homes in the past week. It was already a record last week, but now it sits at 4,728 homes. How far can the drop go? At this point, I am simply no saying as we are a market of extremes. The market is either ice cold or lava hot. Fewer sellers are going to be coming on the market, which is going to have (and is currently having) an impact on demand. Demand dropped by 100 and now sits at 3,318, but potential demand is much higher. Typically demand softens, but so many buyers have been lost out on homes, that there is still plenty of interest. The real problem is nothing to sell them.
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